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Coronavirus is here to stay, experts say

ARTHUR WHITE-CRUMMEY awhite-crummey@postmedia.com

COVID -19 is probably here to stay, and we need to get used to it.

That's the opinion of chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab, who said this week that the disease will likely become “endemic.”

He's not the only public health expert in Saskatchewan to think so. Nazeem Muhajarine, a professor of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan, foresees us “cohabitating” with the coronavirus.

“We will have it in the future,” he said. “We will have some kind of coronavirus that we'll have to contend with on an ongoing basis.”

An endemic disease is different from an epidemic, which we are currently enduring. An epidemic is actively spreading and largely out of control, whereas an endemic disease is present for the long term, in the background, a slow-burning viral companion.

“An endemic is actually something that you live with,” he said.

But both are distinguished from the ultimate goal that Muhajarine still hasn't abandoned: the permanent eradication of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

“What I'm hoping is that we as humans, with our technology in hand, we'll be able to wipe this particular version of the coronavirus off the face of the earth. But this is going to be a particularly difficult enemy to contend with. That is what we are learning with the variants,” he said.

Humans have managed as much for smallpox, while we have also saved bovines from the scourge of rinderpest. But COVID -19 could be a more stubborn adversary.

“It is only a hope, because we have to, not only in North America, not only in Canada and the United States and Europe, we have to drive this particular virus into the ground all over the world,” said Muhajarine.

That's why Muhajarine thinks the slow-burn scenario is more likely. With vaccines in hand, our response won't have to look anything like the emergency measures societies the world over have taken for the past year and a half.

“Our attitude towards this particular virus, if it is endemic, will change,” he said. Instead of the massive disruption of staying home for six months, we'll take everyday precautions with far less impact on our lives.

That means being mindful of symptoms, like persistent cough or trouble breathing, that could signal an infection. It also means masks could be an ongoing feature of the human landscape.

“I think that we'll be wearing masks,” said Muhajarine. “Other cultures outside of North America, particularly in Asian cultures, mask wearing, it's not an uncommon habit.”

But he expects ordinary human contact to resume as the disease fades from epidemic to endemic.

People are social beings, he said, and they'll quickly “reintegrate into that social milieu.”

A recent survey suggests that businesses, at least, are ready to adjust to a continued presence of the virus even after the last public health restrictions lift, likely next month.

The Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce found that 70 per cent of member businesses who responded to the survey plan to continue enforcing at least some of the existing protocols, like physical distancing, mask wearing and sanitizing, even after the restrictions expire. Sixty-eight per cent said they are ready.

There are different scenarios that could ensue. COVID -19 could be like the flu, welling up on a seasonal basis as health officials race to deploy annual vaccines against the latest variants. Or it could strike in scattered outbreaks, possibly linked to travel, flaring up here and there to do combat with contact tracers.

Muhajarine thinks the second scenario is a bit more likely, though it's likely to be some combination of the two.

“This is a bit of a continuum,” he said. “It is not one of the other.”

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2021-06-19T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-06-19T07:00:00.0000000Z

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